Brief Note on Big Surge in US Consumer Credit

Late yesterday the US reported the biggest jump in consumer credit in a decade. It reinforces the signal of the gradual healing of the labor market and the resilience of the US consumer. The report increases the risk that the November personal consumption expenditures are revised higher from the initial 0.1% estimate.


Consumer credit jumped $20.4 bln in November, nearly three times larger than the consensus expected. The recent string of US economic data has surprised the market to the upside by such a magnitude and for a sufficient duration that economists will likely make an adjustment in their forecasts, possibly just in time for the January data to show some moderation after what appears to be the strongest quarterly growth in over a year.

 

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